Dr. Jeff Masters of Wunderground.com

Intensity forecasting has seemed to lag behind track forecasting. What are the reasons for this and what more can and is being done to improve forecasting for both intensity and track of storms?
Track forecasting is easier, since you basically just need to know the wind speed and wind direction of the steering currents. Intensity is much harder, since you need to understand not just the winds, but things like ocean heat content, dry air intrusions, interactions with land, eyewall replacement cycles, etc. Our basic knowledge of the physics behind the hurricane intensification process is poor. If the public were willing to fund more research into this, I think we could have much better track and intensity forecasts. More spending to buy a second NOAA jet to take dropsonde measurements around hurricanes could potentially improve both track and intensity forecasts by 10%.

Could you give a brief explanation of the loop current and the eddy it spawns in the Gulf of Mexico and how they can impact storm intensity like we saw with Katrina and Rita?
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=351&tstamp=200605has this:

The Loop Current is an ocean current that transports warm Caribbean water through the Yucatan Channel between Cuba and Mexico. The current flows northward into the Gulf of Mexico, then loops southeastward through the Florida Keys (where it is called the Florida Current), and into the Bahamas. Here, the waters of the Loop Current flow northward along the U.S. coast and become the Gulf Stream. With current speeds of about 0.8 m/s, the Loop Current is one of the fastest currents in the Atlantic Ocean. The current is about 200-300 km (125 -190 miles) wide, and 800 meters (2600 feet) deep, and is present in the Gulf of Mexico about 95% of the time. During summer and fall, the Loop Current provides a deep (80 - 150 meter) layer of vary warm water that can provide a huge energy source for any lucky hurricanes that might cross over. The Loop Current commonly bulges out in the northern Gulf of Mexico and sometimes will shed a clockwise rotating ring of warm water that separates from the main current. This ring of warm water slowly drifts west-southwestward towards Texas or Mexico at about 3-5 km per day. This feature is called a "Loop Current Ring", "Loop Current Eddy", or "Warm Core Ring", and can provide a key source of energy to fuel rapid intensification of hurricanes that cross the Gulf, in addition to the Loop Current itself. The Loop Current pulsates in a quasi-regular fashion and sheds rings every 6 to 11 months. When a Loop Current Eddy breaks off in the Gulf of Mexico at the height of hurricane season, it can lead to a dangerous situation where a vast reservoir of energy is available to any hurricane that might cross over. This occurred in 2005, when a Loop Current Eddy separated in July, just before Hurricane Katrina passed over and "bombed" into a Category 5 hurricane. The eddy remained in the Gulf and slowly drifted westward during September. Hurricane Rita passed over the same Loop Current Eddy three weeks after Katrina, and also explosively deepened to a Category 5 storm.

Historically, the Texas coastline sees a dropoff in the number of major storms that threaten us after the early part of September with Rita being a notable exception last year. What factors contribute to that change considering it is traditionally the busiest time of the year for storm formation in the Atlantic Basin?
By late September, fall is at hand, and the jet stream gets more active, moving further south. The troughs of low pressure that act to recurve hurricanes away from Texas are more numerous and penetrate further south, turning most hurricanes away towards Louisiana or Florida before they can reach Texas.

Texans experienced a massive, costly and, in some cases, deadly evacuation of the upper Texas coast prior to Hurricane Rita making landfall last year. Many of those who evacuated did so voluntarily from areas well inland (50, 75, 100 miles) even though the majority of serious damage to homes from hurricanes occurs near the coastline. Is there a formula for determining how far inland is safe depending on the size of a major storm or should everyone within a certain radius consider leaving?
There is no formula for determining how far inland is safe, since safety against wind damage is largely a function of how well-built your home is. It might be worth hiring a contractor to inspect your home and give an estimate of what kind of winds the house can survive. You can then use NHC's new probabilistic wind speed forecast to decide whether to stay or leave. Certainly, those who live in mobile homes should leave in situations where those who live in build built houses need not evacuate. If you live in a wood house, consider retrofitting with hurricane straps that connect the tie beams to each roof truss. They are inexpensive and greatly decrease the liklihood of your roof tearing off. Bryan Norcross' book "Hurricane Almanac 2006" has many other helpful tips on making your home more hurricane resistant.

You have mentioned in your blog that Mexico has been far more successful in evacuating its citizens prior to storm landfall than the US has with Hurricane Katrina being a prime example. In your opinion, what must FEMA and other government agencies do to improve?
FEMA and Congress should take a look at how hurricane disaster planning and relief are done in Mexico and Cuba, who are much more successful than the U.S. in keeping loss of life low in hurricanes. Those countries have a top-down federally coordinated disaster response with access to the full resources of the military that works. There's less bureaucracy and less conflict between local, regional, and federal governments, resulting in less confusion about who is responsible for what. Certainly, taking FEMA out of the Department of Homeland Security and putting it back on its own will help. But unless the voters and media keep the pressure on our politicians to reform FEMA and make it work, things are not going to improve. Ideally, this pressure will take the form of serious campaign finance reform. The Katrina disaster exposed a serious flaw in our government — a government's primary responsibility is to protect the lives of its citizens, and government at the local, state, and national level failed us horridy in the Katrina disaster. This happened because our politicians are more concerned with serving the wants of their campaign contributors thatn the needs of the people. I believe that the original ideals of a government "Of The People, For The People, By The People" have become too slanted towards a government "Of The Corporations, For The Corporations, By The Corporations." Until we move back towards the ideals of the Founding Fathers and enact effective campaign finance reform, we are doomed to a repeat of the Katrina disaster.

How do you feel about the broadcast media and its impact on storm forecasting, particularly how ad revenues and ratings play into the way storms are reported?
Hurricanes coverage is too sensationalized and over-hyped for my liking. Hurricane have become entertainment. One of these days, a reporter is going to get seriously injured by flying debris. I've championed on my blog the idea of having reporters doing their show from a safe place out of the wind, and sending wind-up toys out into wind to be blown away for dramatic effect. TV stations can make a creative and dramatic demonstration of the wind's power without endangering the lives of reporters. Hurricanes are sensational enough in their own right, and do not need over-dramatization.

There has been much discussion regarding global warming and its impact on hurricane intensity. Al Gore's film An Inconvenient Truth used the Katrina disaster as an example of what we can expect from hurricanes in the future and attributed it to global warming. Yet, many experts believe the impact of global warming on hurricane formation and intensity is questionable at best. What is your opinion?
It is true that in theory, global warming may significantly increase the intensity of hurricanes. The current database of storms is too poor in quality and of too short duration to tell if this has occurred yet. I expect that in about 20 years, there will be pretty solid evidence that such an increase is occurring. However, there is also the possibility that hurricane intensity may decrease in the future, if global warming causes an increase in frequency of the El Nino phenomena. El Nino is known to which suppresses Atlantic hurricane activity, due to an increase in wind shear.

Over the next 50 years, the increase in hurricane destruction due to overbuilding on our coasts is likely to be far greater than the destruction due to stronger hurricanes because of global warming. More intense hurricanes don't even make my top five list of concerns about human-caused climate change. There are other very serious and plausible effects we may get this century from human-caused climate change which could cause regional or worldwide calamities. My top five concerns:

1. Drought triggering water shortages and crop failures.
2. Collapse of the food chain due to the inability of key species to adjust to sudden warming or excessive acidifcation of the oceans.
3. Melting of the icecaps causing sea level rise.
4. A shutdown of the Gulfstream current due to excessive fresh water runoff in the northern Atlantic, triggering abrupt climate change in Europe and North America.
5. Spread of disease and harmful invasive species.

What is the greatest concern/fear among forecasters in relation to major hurricanes and their impact on those living along the US coastline?
Forecasters fear a repeat of a case like the 1935 Florida Keys Labor Day Hurricane that intensified from a 70 mph tropical storm to Cat 5 hurricane in 24 hours, then hit a populated region. With the tremendous boom in coastal development the past 30 years, it's only a matter of time before we get a high loss of life due to our inability to warn people in time for this kind of storm.